From Shock to Shift: How Trump 2.0 Could Catalyze a Sustainability Revolution

At the start of Trinity Term, the Oxford Sustainable Finance Student Society had the honour of hosting John Elkington for a provocative and timely session titled "From Shock to Shift: How Trump 2.0 Can Trigger a Sustainability Revolution." Moderated by Professor Thom Wetzer of the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme, the event explored how political upheaval might paradoxically create openings for breakthrough sustainability reforms.

The Polycrisis and the ESG Recession

Opening with stark illustrations of global disruption—from the Puerto Alegre floods to the Indus "water bombs"—Elkington positioned our current state as a “polycrisis”: a convergence of environmental, political, and economic stresses. He warned of an emerging “sustainability recession,” driven in part by ESG pushback, climate inaction, and corporate retreat.

Periods of turbulence, he suggested, often reveal new opportunities. For example, China has moved swiftly to capitalise on global uncertainty by leading advancements in solar energy, battery storage, and AI technologies.

Green Swans and the X-Curve

Central to Elkington’s argument was the idea of “Green Swans”, which are positive, exponential shifts catalyzed by crises. These are not merely rebounds from setbacks but radical reimaginings of how markets, institutions, and societies function. The shift from traditional S-curves to X-curves, he explained, marks a new era where sustainability transitions can occur faster than ever.

He cited Norway as a compelling example: in 2023, 82% of new car sales in the country were electric. This type of transformation, he argued, is not accidental—it results from long-term policy alignment, public awareness, and technological readiness.

Market Redesign and Systems Thinking

To encourage Green Swans, Elkington called for a redesign of markets to prioritise system value—where businesses holistically address social and environmental needs. The role of Chief Sustainability Officers (CSOs) has grown in prominence, but a true shift requires that sustainability be embedded in market DNA, not bolted on. He closed the session with a call to embrace “Beaver Market” mindsets: industrious, adaptive, and catalytic—neither blindly euphoric like bull markets nor despairing like bear markets.

Fireside Chat with Professor Thom Wetzer

In a thoughtful follow-up discussion, Elkington and Professor Wetzer examined the difference between ESG metrics and broader sustainability thinking, highlighting the need for systemic transformation over compliance-driven frameworks. They discussed how universities are becoming more dynamic spaces for sustainability leadership and the difficulty of driving change in a world where rationality often gives way to inertia. Questions from the audience addressed international cooperation, with particular focus on China’s integrated ecological strategy and its relevance despite geopolitical tensions. The session concluded with cautious optimism that the coming decade may offer an unprecedented window for impactful change and a true golden age for sustainability.