Shortcomings of the European Low-Carbon Investment Landscape: Speaker Series with Lucy Field

On Tuesday 4 November, the Oxford Sustainable Finance Student Society (OSFSS) in collaboration with the Oxford Energy Society, co-hosted an evening talk with Lucy Field, Partner at AFRY Management Consulting and New College alum, in the Harold Wilson Room at Jesus College.

Rethinking Energy Assets and Market Shifts

Field opened by tracing how traditional energy assets—from ports to gas grids—are being forced to adapt. Former coal-importing ports, for instance, are reinventing themselves as hubs for wind components, biomass imports, and biofuel production.

She argued that this isn’t moral rebranding—it’s survival strategy. Firms with plans for offshore wind servicing, biofuel processing, or hydrogen handling are the ones staying competitive as fossil-based revenues decline.

The conversation then moved to biomethane, which Field described as a “rare win-win”—capturing methane emissions while replacing fossil gas in existing infrastructure. But she stressed realism: the UK produces less than 1% of its gas as biomethane, and even the most optimistic scenarios suggest a ceiling of 10–50%. Countries like Denmark have shown what’s possible—already replacing a third of its gas—but others, including Germany and France, have stumbled with overambitious or protectionist approaches.

Investors, Incentives, and the Cost of Change

Turning to finance, Field said investor appetite for low-carbon fuels is “real but restless.” Pension and infrastructure funds are chasing the EU’s sustainable finance classification, yet must navigate messy subsidy systems and shifting feedstock rules.

She cited the German GHG quota system, which temporarily sent biomethane prices soaring before cheap, mislabeled imports from Asia collapsed the market. Reforms have since restored stability, but Field warned that volatility remains a structural feature of the energy transition.

On renewables, she contrasted the UK’s offshore wind leadership with the failure of its latest Contract for Difference (CfD) auction, where high material costs and underpriced subsidies deterred new bids. Offshore wind, she said, “remains world-class in potential, but the margins are thinner than ever.”

Heating, Storage, and What Comes Next

The discussion closed with the hardest sector of all: residential heating.

The UK has around 250,000 heat pumps installed; reaching net zero would require 26 million. Field called current progress “flatlining” and outlined two possible futures: one aligned with 2050 targets, and another where slow adoption leaves gas—partly biomethane or CCS-backed—as a lasting fixture.

She also noted that while battery storage can stabilise short-term fluctuations, long-duration and seasonal storage “still belong to gas.” Until technology catches up, flexible gas infrastructure will remain Europe’s winter safety net.

Reflections

Audience questions touched on EU policy design, investor confidence, and the practicality of large-scale electrification. Field’s closing message was clear: “Markets are messy, governments misprice risk, but the direction of travel is irreversible.”

Discussion continued informally over drinks, as students debated how Europe can balance ambition with economic reality.

OSFSS thanks Lucy Field for her insightful presentation and all attendees for joining the discussion.

Look ahead — Week 5 events:

Join Pawlin Marwah, Senior Manager of Strategic Finance at Enpal, for an engaging discussion on how legal frameworks are evolving in response to climate change—examining both the risks of litigation and regulation, and the opportunities in business and policy innovation.

Additionally OSFSS is hosting a 3-part training session on "ESG and its applications in sustainable investing" the first of which starting this Sunday. The training sessions are exclusively open to OSFSS members.